My 5 reasons (ND/UW edition).

This is a post for all you LSF fans who have been around the blog for quite some time. A couple of times here around LSF I've presented reasons why I thought my favorite team would win or lose a big game. The first such installment was a February 7, 2009 post entitled "My 3 reasons," that explored who I though would win a regular season match between the Canucks and the Blackhawks. The 'Nucks won that game 7-3, with Ryan Kesler getting 2 goals. Ryan Kesler was my #1 reason that I thought the Vannies would win. Hm, I'm good. The second such installment was a March 6, 2009 post entitled, "Gauchos & Irish make last gasp," that explored my 5 reasons for thinking that the C's would beat the then first place Cavs at home, despite ESPN saying they wouldn't. The C's won that game 105-94, and Ray Allen went 2 for 5 from beyond the arc with 17 total points, which was my #5 reason I thought they would win. The third, and most recent installment was a March 28, 2009 post entitled, "My 5 reasons (playoff edition)," that explored my five reasons either team would win the Western Conference Semifinals between my 'Nucks and J's Hawks. Since I presented evidence for the likelihood of both outcomes, I was right again when Chicago won the damn thing to burst into the Western Conference Finals. So, the point of this whole set up was 1) to show a small piece of the long and storied history of the Long Suffering Fans blog and 2) to make some BS attempt to make you believe that I am really good at predicting the outcome of sporting events (please don't check my Streak For The Ca$h as a reference).

This time around, my 5 reasons are going to focus on the upcoming Notre Dame/Washington collegiate football game. Many around Irish Nation saw these five straight games as the most important five games of the ND season: vs. Michigan State, @ Purdue, vs. Washington, vs. USC, and vs. Boston College. When you look at that five game span, two things jump out: 1) All but one are at home, and we already won the roadie, so that's big, and 2) the game against Washington is clearly the most underrated. Washington beat SC already this year, and thoughts that the game against the Huskies will be a cake walk are just stupid. So, here comes my 5 reasons that Washington will win and my 5 reasons Notre Dame will win this weekend's big game.

The 5 reasons why the University of Washington will win:

1) Big win: The Huskies beat the Trojans 16-13 earlier in the season, which makes them a legit threat throughout the rest of the 2009 football calendar. The UW defense held USC to 110 yards through the air and stuffed the Trojans on all ten of their third down conversions. That is some solid action.

2) Eric Folk: I know, I know, who the hell is Eric Folk? Well, is the Woodland Hills, CA native is the Washington kicker who led the offense in the big game against USC with 3 really huge field goals. In the season, Folk is 11 for 11 with extra points and 6 for 7 in field goals made. The only field goal he missed was between 40-49, meaning he is 100% from 39 and under. On our side, Nick Tausch is 13 for 14 on extra points (whoops!) and 5 for 6 on field goals. His one miss came on a 20-29 yarder, which shows that he is apt to not having any gimmies. If the game is close, we could be in trouble.

3) Jake Locker: I'm surprised that Locker is still able to even be on a football field. It seems like he's been playing for the Huskies since I was in Huggies. This season, his large and physical presence has been huge for U-Dub. Locker is 79/136 for 1,002 yards. He holds a 7.37 YDS/A mark with 6 touchdowns and just 3 picks. He's even rushed for 74 yards (including a big 24 yard dash) for 2 TDs. He's big, tough to bring down, and could be a difference maker.

4) The Washington receiving core: Here are the numbers of the Purple & Gold receivers. James Johnson (19 receptions for 220 yards), Jermaine Kearse (11 receptions for 182 yards), D'Andrew Goodwin (8 receptions for 155 yards), Johri Fogerson (8 receptions for 128 yards), and Devin Aguilar (7 receptions for 107 yards). They spread things around in terms of tosses, and that makes it even more difficult to cover them. Add in the injuries to the Notre Dame receiving core, and you could have trouble for the Irish.

5) Who has Notre Dame beaten?: One thing going Washington's way is that the Irish may be much worse than their 3-1 record would indicate. Notre Dame has wins against Nevada, Michigan State, and Purdue. The combined record of those teams is 2-9. 2-9! What should Washington be scared of? The only time Notre Dame played a team with any substance was Michigan, and they practically handed the Wolverines the game.

Man, that was tough. Now, making a lot more sense, I will present the 5 reasons Notre Dame will win:

1) We should be 4-0: Notre Dame's 3-1 record may not be enough to earn a national ranking, but they should be 4-0. The game against Michigan was won, and Charlie Weis made some bad decisions with the lead and the ball. If he would have run the ball, ND would have been 4-0, would have been ranked somewhere around the top 15. Not having a ranking has made the Irish severely underrated.

2) Jimmy Clausen: JC may be a gigantic douche, as he shows in every single interview he does, but he is putting up numbers like my UCSB Calculus TA. Claus' is 77/117 for 1,122 yards (that's a 65.8% completion mark). He's got 10 TDs and just 1 INT and a 172.9 QB rating (whatever that means). Despite being somewhat injured, Clausen led the Irish back to glory after a possible collapse at the hands of the Boilermakers. Even though he acted like a "Chad" after the game, you have to admit that he was really on point in the march down the field.

3) Kyle "F-ing" Rudolph: "Rudolph The Red Nosed Tight End" has become the premier receiver with Michael Floyd on the injured list. I know that Golden Tate has been dominating, but Rudoplh is the key to our success through the air. 17 catches for 214 yards with a 52 yard long and 2 TDs. #9 can go over the middle like nobody's business, and he is completely underrated by everyone outside of Jonathan Davis and myself.

4) Washington kind of sucks: Yeah, so you beat USC by 3 with their super freshman QB injured and on the bench. I think Kyle Middlebrooks and the Barons could have given the Trojan's backup QB and much overrated squad a run for their money that weekend. The game was set up for an upset, and not very many people (outside of those wearing cardinal and gold glasses) were actually shocked. I know that SC has already forgotten about it. Outside of that game, the Huskies are 1-2 on the year, losing by 8 to LSU and by 20 to Stanford. Idaho is the only other team outside of SC to fall to U-Dub, and that doesn't really impress me (despite Idaho being 2nd best in the WAC). ND's wins are clearly bigger than Washington's.

5) The home sellout streak is alive and well: Notre Dame has 208 straight sellouts at home this year, and the Irish fans did just enough to keep that streak alive in this upcoming game against Washington. The amazing fan support is what separates the Irish from any other program in the nation. Irish Nation will push my boys onward to victory!

So, what do you think?