Monday, October 4, 2010

Ryan requests Hall of Fame Hat Change.


Wouldn't it be cool, if after being impressed by the Angels series against the Rangers, Nolan Ryan swapped out his "T" for an "A" on his plaque at Cooperstown? We'd probably have to do better than a split to make that happen, and losing two of four to the 2010 AL West Champions wasn't the only negative this weekend in Halo Nation. Note: This is not an end of the season review, it's just a review of the weekend series with Texas. You can stay tuned for the season review, which will hopefully drop tomorrow. As for now, let's explore the final series of 2010.

Thursday: Cliff Lee and Vlad Guerrero. That's all you need to know. Lee held the Halo offense to four hits and one unearned run in his 7 innings of postseason tuneup work, and Vladdy drove in the game winning run in the eighth, as the Halos dropped a Scott Kazmir start...shocker! Kazberries was his usual self, making it just 5.3 innings (89 pitches), allowing 2 runs, 6 hits, and 2 walks. I'm not sure I can watch him finish his contract in the rotation next year. Would anyone trade for him? Wouldn't he look spiffy with a Bee on his cap? Waldo got knocked for the Rangers' winning run in his inning on the mound, and jumped on the grenade for Kaz to take the loss. At least Kaz beaned Kinsler. It probably would have been a very different score if not for the Angels turning three double plays to keep it as close as it was. On the offensive side, Saint Peter was the only guy in a red hat swinging the bat (actually, Texas was wearing their reds as well). He went 3 for 4 with 2 runs, 1 RBI, AND stole his 10th base of the year. One of those hits was a bomb to left that traveled 433 FEET! To quote Bluu Durham, anything that flies that far ought to have a flight attendant. Pete's a stud. Matsui and Callaspo were the only other Angels to get hits (one each). It was a weak overall performance, for sure, but we kind of all expected to lose the Kaz v Lee game, I think. Speedy Pete, by the way, has amassed a .600+ SLG over the final week, and raised his average to a better-than-Mathis-or-Wood .204.

Friday: Jered Weaver took to the mound for the final time this year, and the Angels took extra innings to get the win. Sound familiar? How about 7 innings of 2 run ball with 4 Ks? That's deserving of a no decision, right? Yeah, I thought so too. Leading 4-2 in the bottom of the ninth after Juan Rivera homered, Fernando Rodney came in and blew the save. Wow, this really was the prototypical Halo game. Fraudney allowed 2 walks in his 2 run inning, and he's lucky he was in Arlington, because he would have had trash thrown at him in Anaheim. The Angels pushed on, though, and triumphed on Juan Rivera's second jack of the game, in the 11th. Mike Kohn came in to save the game by saving Bobby Cassevah's attempted second Angel blown save of the game. It was as exciting as a 5-4 win can get, right? I was just proud that Aussie Richie Thompson got the win in relief. Playing first base, Juan Rivera's two homeruns made him the only Angel to get more than one hit, though he was joined in the jack department by Torii. They were all solo shots. As bad as we were, the first seven hitters in the Halo lineup got at least a hit, and we held the returning Josh Hamilton to an 0'fer night after he was welcomed by a standing ovation. Some batting champion.

Saturday: After jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the top of the first inning, the Angels watched the Rangers bust back into control and send our boys crashing down to our first losing season since 2003, by the score of 2-6. I'll be honest, Ervin Santana didn't look good out there. He finished with 6.3 innings of 5 run ball, giving up three walks, and just one K. Man, and I was pitching (pun) this guy getting an accidental 20 wins? What was I thinking? The offense wasn't there to help him out either, as Howie Kendrick (2 for 4) was the only multi-hit Halo. He doubled and picked up a RBI, while Torii drove in the other run, as the Angels went completely silent from innings 2-9. How can you do that? Bourjos' leadoff triple is probably the lone highlight from the penultimate game of the year. Mathis, Napoli, and Rivera all went 0'fer.

Sunday: In the final game of the year, the Angels decided to end on a hopeful note for all of us fans out here. We saw quality pitching from Danny Boy Haren, and he actually got backed up by the bats! Glory! Capping a 4-0/1.70 run in his final eight starts, the Chessmaster went 6 innings of 2 run ball with 3 Ks to beat Texas and finish .500 on the season (if only the Angels could have done the same!). The win also put us at 35-22 against the AL West this season, which would lead you to think we would have finished better than we did. Hideki Matsui hit a two run bomb, Peter Bourjos hit another solo bomb (387 feet), and Mark Trumbo capped off a 3 run ninth inning with his 2 run single (his first of hopefully many MLB hits). The Halos were doing well with "Angel Ball," stealing two bags (Abreu and Aybar), and were double play happy on defense again (turning two, twice). On the mound, the bullpen also backed up Haren, with Thompson-Jepsen-Walden going 3 shutout innings. Is Thompson solidifying his chances of making the team for a full season next year? Whatever the case, he's been looking good as of late. And, the Angels youngies looked good on Sunday to end this subpar season with a smiley face.

Now to the bad news. Despite splitting the series with the far superior Rangers, we finished the season 80-82 losers, 10 games back of the champs. Even worse, we finished one game back of our hated rivals from Oakland, all alone in third place in the division. What about all those goals I had? Also, despite leading the team in batting average and RBI (.281 and 90), our boy Torii Hunter failed to complete the Angel triple crown by losing out on the HR race to Mike Napoli (26 for Nap and just 23 for Big Game). Why did I even make these fun end of season goals? 

Speaking of Mike Napoli, I'd like to shine the spotlight on his this time around. Now, keep in mind my earlier disclaimer that this is not an end of season review post (again, that'll hopefully come tomorrow). I simply want to explore the season that Napoli had, and take a guess at the season he can be exected to have in 2011, as he is a hot topic on the brains of trade-minded Halo fans and the usual pessimistic Angels blogs.

This was Mike's 5th season as the Halo "catcher," and he seemed to shine when given the eyeball test. This season saw Mike get more at bats, more hits, more runs scored (tied, actually), more doubles, more homeruns, more RBI, more total bases, and more strikeouts than any season before it. You hear all that, and it's cool (not including the career K record), but look deeper. This was his 2nd worst season in terms of average, his completely worst season in terms of OBP, his 2nd worst season in terms of OPS, his worst season by far in terms of GIDP, and his 2nd worst season in terms of value (both WAR and RAR). His defensive WAR was so bad that he was sitting in the negative! We can take note that Napoli was 7th in the AL in strikeouts and 5th in errors committed at first base in the AL this year. Of course, he's not a natural first baseman, he's a catcher. And, believe it or not, he hit more homeruns than any other catcher in all of the MLB (his 26 were +5 on #2 Brian McCann). But, man, a .238 batting average is tough to take, even if you get all those bombs.

It kind of felt like a schizophrenic season review for Napoli. Really good, and yet so bad. How do you sort it all out? Well, I think we should take a guess at how he'll do next year. Here's our best guess:

Napoli's LSF 2011 Predicted Stats: .251/.346/.485, with 29 jacks (that's right...more jacks!), 80 RBI, and (an even higher) 148 Ks. In terms of value, we're guessing we'll see a slight increase to a 2.2 WAR and a slight increase to a 22 RAR. 

So, when you see what he did in 2010 and when you see what he may do in 2011, do the Halos keep him? To answer this question, we have to take into consideration who else the Angels have at the catcher spot. Do you trade away Napoli and have Mathis start in 2011? God, I hope not, and I think we've clearly made the case in previous posts that it would be a team-killing idea. Is Bobby Wilson ready to take the reigns? No, even if CERA is your all-time favorite stat. Is Hank Conger already ready to take over? Well, he's the closest of those beyond Napoli mentioned so far, but no, not yet. So when I look at the past and the future of Napoli, I find it so hard to imagine that he's going anywhere in this offseason (other than Sutra lounge to pick up some hotties...woo!). Unless there is something else up the Angels' collective sleeve (bringing back Bengie?), I just can't see it happening. He stays for one more year, and then it's Conger time in 2012, in my opinion. 

What do you think?

-- Sent from my Palm Prē

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