Thursday, December 30, 2010

Is Patrick Kaleta the top LSF hockey player?


As the year comes to a close, the hockey season starts to heat up. I though it might be fun to provoke a little more conversation by exploring who is the best hockey player between the four LSF teams. And no, it's not Patrick Kaleta.

Let's start by taking a look at the LSF hockey teams, and how they've been doing.




LSF NHL Standings:

Tommy's Vancouver Canucks: 49 points
Jon's Chicago Blackhawks: 43 points
Brandon's Buffalo Sabres: 34 points
Andrew's Toronto Maple Leafs: 30 points

It's kind of amazing when you look at things. I'm a little surprised that the Western squads are flat out dominating the Easterns, and I'm also surprised that the Sabres have overtaken the Leafs after the starts that both teams had. To get a picture of how the teams have been playing recently, we'll look at the L10 and the current streaks:

Tommy's Vancouver Canucks: 8-0-2, won last 3
Jon's Chicago Blackhawks: 6-3-1, lost last 1
Brandon's Buffalo Sabres: 4-5-1, won last 1
Andrew's Toronto Maple Leafs: 4-6-0, lost last 1

Clearly, my Canucks have been ripping and roaring through the month of December, but that doesn't mean that they definitely have the best player of the four teams. Let's take a pick of the top two players from each team so far this season and go from there (we won't include goalies):

Canucks two best players: Henrik Sedin (47 points) and Daniel Sedin (45 points)
Blackhawks two best players: Patrick Sharp (36 points) and Jonathan Toews (33 points)
Sabres two best players: Derek Roy (35 points) and Thomas Vanek (25 points)
Leafs two best players: Mikhail Grabovski (27 points) and Clarke MacArthur (27 points)

There are a couple of things that jump out at me when I look at these names. First, I don't have any idea who either of the Leafs "top" players are. Secondly, the decision between the two players to pick the best player on each team is actually pretty hard. But, to move on in this discussion, we have to pick one player from each team and explain why:

Vancouver's top 2010/2011 performer: Daniel Sedin:

Right, he has less points that his brother. But, Hank, as usual, has been piling up assists rather than goals. Henrik has 39 assists to boost that point total, while Daniel has put up a team leading (tied with Ryan Kesler, who may have a claim to this title as well) 19 goals among his 45 points. Daniel has put up 3 times the power play goals that Hank has put in, twice the game winners, and is +7.2% better at shooting than his equally aged brother. Thus, I'm going to give the title to Daniel.

Chicago's top 2010/2011 performer: Patrick Sharp:

Easy choice over Jonathan "Taves." Sharpie has 5 more goals, 2 shorties compared to zero by Toews, and a thrilling 5 game winners. On the other hand, Toews is a +7 while Sharp is a -8, but I'm still going to go with the left winger.

Buffalo's top 2010/2011 performer: Derek Roy

I would probably defer to Brandon on this one. Vanek does have a 13-10 goal lead on Roy, but Roy has put up 10 more points and is only a -1 compared to Vanek's -12. All that with way more time on ice (19:32/game vs. 17:18/game). He also has 6 points in his last 5 games, and I think is a little underrated. Am I right? Roy is underrated compared to Vanek?

Toronto's top 2010/2011 performer: Mikhail Grabovski

This was kind of a toss up, but a nearly even 13 goal 14 assist split for this center and a +1 rating really made me lean toward Grabs over Mac Arthur. He also is a 14+% with shooting, and he's German. My wife is half German, so that scores some point for me. But, I wonder, why did he play for Belarus in the 2010 Olympics?

Now comes the hard part. How do we separate these guys and decide who has had the best seasons so far? Let's go with points per shift to determine who is the greatest so far. We can compare many things, but I think this stat of production per shift on ice over the year so far is a good way to see what kind of fear a player can strike fear into the heart of their foes.

Daniel Sedin: 0.540 points/shift
Partick Sharp: 0.0377 points/shift
Derek Roy: 0.0452 points/shift
Mikhail Grabovski: 0.0345 points/shift

So, my semi-made-up stat would lead us to believe that Daniel Sedin is the best player between the four LSF hockey teams. I'm sure you're all saying, yeah, of course you pick a Canuck as the best player out of our four teams. Or, if you're a little more realistic, you agree that Daniel is the best, and heap praise on him like I do. I guess a little more evidence might help sway you non-believers. Let's look at a Tommy favorite, the lovely +/- rating.

Daniel Sedin: +12
Patrick Sharp: -8
Derek Roy: -1
Mikhail Grabovski: +1

That's a pretty amazing comparison, showing even more how Daniel is the best of the four. Let the arguments begin. What do you think? You don't like my stats? You don't like the players I've selected as the best from each team? Or, do you just agree with me? Either way, let me see those comments.

Congratulations, Danny.

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