Well, that made for quite an exciting weekend, eh, Angels fans? Our boy Tony Reagins, under the unparalleled pressure of fans and OC Register bloggers alike, pulled the trigger on the offseason's biggest surprise. I mean, really, no one saw this coming. In case you a) have been living under a rock, or b) aren't an Angels fan, here's the deal:
Blue Jays get- Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera
Angels get- Vernon Wells
My first thought was, "Doesn't Wells have some disgusting contract?" Then I thought, "Oh shit! Does this mean Mathis is going to start at catcher next year?" Once the dust settled, I finally came back down to reality, gained some perspective, and am ready to talk this out. First off, I like Wells. Contract aside, he's a quality outfielder. Plus, we've kind of made a big deal of overspending for outfielders (GMJ, Finley, etc), so what's so shocking? Here's what we know: He's a lifetime .280 hitter, averaging 26 home runs and 95 RBI per season over his 12 year career. Last year, Wells hit .273/31/88 in 157 games. However, in 2009 he hit .260/15/66 in 158 games. 2003 was hit best year, as he posted .317/33/117 numbers. Looking at his stats overall, it seems like Vernon has alternating seasons. Good, bad, good, bad. Reminds me of what we see from Ervin Santana.
The me from two or three years ago would laugh that I would even think twice about getting rid of Napoli. But, now that the Angels have done it, I'm a little (emphasis on "a little) concerned. Over the last three years, Naps hit 20 jacks, 20 jacks, and 26 jacks, and it was always in a platoon role. He was the only reason we got any production out of the firstbase position after Morales' injury last year. The knock on him, though, is his RBI and average. How does a guy who hit 66 bombs in the last three years only get 173 RBI? And, he hit .238 last year, just slightly off his fairly crappy .251 career average. Sure, he can knock it out, but is he really any better than Paul McAnulty would be if you gave him playing time? He's also a .194 playoff hitter, which doesn't impact him on the Blue Jays, but it makes a difference.
The issue for the Angels with losing Napoli is: what are we going to do with the catcher spot? If you're an Angel fan, you know Jeff Mathis is going to get way more playing time than he deserves. Hopefully Bobby Wilson can come around as the #2, because I'm guessing they just aren't quite ready to give Hank Conger his full go. It's easy to predict that Jeff and Bobby will both hit around the .200 mark with no more than 4 home runs a piece, and this will allow haters of the trade to have a glaring pile of evidence for their argument. I'd start Hank and just go through the growing pains (although he didn't show many growing pains after his callup last year), but I just don't trust the Angels to do it.
Meanwhile, Juan Rivera has always been my boy. Often it seemed as though I was the only Halo fan who saw how good JR actually was. Rivera averages .280/22/83, and gets paid just a little less than Vernon Wells. When the Angels acquired Rivera and Izzy for José Guillen straight up (and still to this day), I considered it one of the greatest trades in Halo history (a close second is Terry Evans for Jeff Weaver and maybe Chone Figgins for Kimera Bartee, in my opinion). Remember 2006? Juan hit .310/23/85. In 6 seasons with the Angels, Rivera hit .271+ four times, hit 15+ jacks four times, and had 50+ RBI four times. The fours are wild! He's underrated, is looking at a big rebound year, and should do well to placate Blue Jay fans, if they have half a brain.
Obviously, the winner of this trade will be determined after a couple of seasons, but I think I can drop a few guarantees on you:
1. Vernon Wells has a middle of the road season for the Angels in 2011. Let's say .260/20/80. Fans will flip out, because Napoli will do the same in Toronto for much less money.
2. He'll bounce back for a monster year in 2012.
3. Napoli will have a usual-for-him season next year, and then will slowly fade as time goes on. 20 jacks, then 15, then 8, and the drop off in production will lead to the end of his starting days (a .230 average can't keep you starting for very long).
4. Blue Jay fans will look back on the trade and realize that they didn't know Juan Rivera was the better part of the deal for them, as he'll continue to be a B+ outfielder for C+ money and still get D- attention.
5. After another season of Jeff Mathis and his amazing two digit batting average, Mike Scioscia will finally give up, and we'll see what Hankie Pankie Conger can do.
Best of luck to Mike, Juan, and especially Vernon. Hopefully Wells does well (I liked that one), because if he sucks, it could spell the end for Tony Reagins.
-- Sent from my Palm Prē
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